آینده نگاری تحقیق و توسعه فناوری اطلاعات در ایران

This research utilizes resources and collective wisdom of IT experts and other participants in industry to increase the effectiveness of policies and decisions in the area. To achieve this goal, 107 future and emerging technologies from foresight reports and research programs in Europe, Japan, Taiwan and Gartner firm were extracted. Then out of these technologies, 69 cases (categorized in 14 subject areas) were acknowledged by experts’ panel for applying as the Delphi inputs. By using the Delphi method (two rounds), IT R&D barriers and challenges, effective organizations in IT R&D investment, and priorities have been determined, according to the panel members. Then, the view of panel members about each technology was evaluated by criteria such as degree of expertise, importance, forecasted time of technological realization (in the word) and widespread use of technology in Iran, Iran’s status in the life cycle of knowledge and impact of technology in IT applications area. The results of the Delphi process was reported in national level, including Delphi panel members demography, public questions and specialized questions for each of the technologies. Finally the research provides some recommendations for decision makers.